User blog comment:MachineGunSuper/MachineGun's Arrow Growing Number/@comment-25337554-20180218100000/@comment-30754445-20180218223112

The probability of it happening on the first day of the L-era is only about 60% (basically, it will happen only if the DJ final digit is 5,6,7,8,9 or 10 on that day).

And it may well take more than two days. The odds for this are surprisingly high due to the days in which the market is closed (I estimate these odds at about 15%).